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Tuesday, September 29, 2009

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Fixed Exchange Rate

Wednesday, September 16, 2009
The chief features of the Bretton Woods system were an obligation for each country to adopt a monetary policy that maintained the exchange rate of its currency within a fixed value—plus or minus one percent—in terms of gold and the ability of the IMF to bridge temporary imbalances of payments. In the face of increasing financial strain, the system collapsed in 1971, after the United States unilaterally terminated convertibility of the dollars to gold. This action caused considerable financial stress in the world economy and created the unique situation whereby the United States dollar became the "reserve currency" for the states which had signed the agreement.

King Crushes Sterling

The news that the Bank of England's MPC are keeping the option of reducing the rate of interest banks receive on deposits in a effort to avoid a liquidity trap sent sterling spiraling yesterday. Governor King said that it would be a “useful supplement” to stimulate the ailing UK economy as it has proved to be in Sweden, where this has been in effect for 3 weeks or so. The aim is to raise lending and stop banks hoarding cash.

GBP fell to a 4 month low against the euro with similar dips seen against the dollar, Swiss franc and Japanese Yen as the market quickly lost belief in the pound’s recent rally.

The announcement overshadowed the news that inflation in the UK has fallen to the lowest level since January 2007 although the 1.6% figure was higher than the 1.4% market estimate. This follows are exact thoughts that inflation here in the UK will remain more sticky for a considerable time.

Production of Gold

Gold extraction is most economical in large, easily mined deposits. Ore grades as little as 0.5 g/1000 kg (0.5 parts per million, ppm) can be economical. Typical ore grades in open-pit mines are 1–5 g/1000 kg (1–5 ppm); ore grades in underground or hard rock mines are usually at least 3 g/1000 kg (3 ppm). Because ore grades of 30 g/1000 kg (30 ppm) are usually needed before gold is visible to the naked eye, in most gold mines the gold is invisible.

Since the 1880s, South Africa has been the source for a large proportion of the world’s gold supply, with about 50% of all gold ever produced having come from South Africa. Production in 1970 accounted for 79% of the world supply, producing about 1,000 tonnes. However by 2007 production was just 272 tonnes. This sharp decline was due to the increasing difficulty of extraction, changing economic factors affecting the industry, and tightened safety auditing. In 2007 China (with 276 tonnes) overtook South Africa as the world's largest gold producer, the first time since 1905 that South Africa has not been the largest.

Price of Historically gold coinage

Like other precious metals, gold is measured by troy weight and by grams. When it is alloyed with other metals the term carat or karat is used to indicate the amount of gold present, with 24 carats being pure gold and lower ratings proportionally less. The purity of a gold bar can also be expressed as a decimal figure ranging from 0 to 1, known as the millesimal fineness, such as 0.995 being very pure.

The price of gold is determined on the open market, but a procedure known as the Gold Fixing in London, originating in September 1919, provides a daily benchmark figure to the industry. The afternoon fixing appeared in 1968 to fix a price when US markets are open.

Historically gold coinage was widely used as currency; When paper money was introduced, it typically was a receipt redeemable for gold coin or bullion. In an economic system known as the gold standard, a certain weight of gold was given the name of a unit of currency. For a long period, the United States government set the value of the US dollar so that one troy ounce was equal to $20.67 ($664.56/kg), but in 1934 the dollar was devalued to $35.00 per troy ounce ($1125.27/kg). By 1961 it was becoming hard to maintain this price, and a pool of US and European banks agreed to manipulate the market to prevent further currency devaluation against increased gold demand.

Price records of Gold

Since 1968 the price of gold on the open market has ranged widely, from a high of $850/oz ($27,300/kg) on January 21, 1980, to a low of $252.90/oz ($8,131/kg) on June 21, 1999 (London Gold Fixing).[36] The 1980 high was not overtaken until January 3, 2008 when a new maximum of $865.35 per troy ounce was set (a.m. London Gold Fixing).[37] The current record price was set on March 17, 2008 at $1023.50/oz ($32,900/kg)(am. London Gold Fixing).[37]

Long term price trends

Since April 2001 the gold price has more than tripled in value against the US dollar,[38] prompting speculation that this long secular bear market (or the Great Commodities Depression) has ended and a bull market has returned.[39] In March 2008, the gold price increased above $1000,[40] which in real terms is still well below the $850/oz. peak on January 21, 1980. Indexed for inflation, the 1980 high would equate to a price of around $2400 in 2007 US dollars.

In the last century, major economic crises (such as the Great Depression, World War II, the first and second oil crisis) lowered the Dow/Gold ratio (which is inherently inflation adjusted) substantially, in most cases to a value well below 4.[41] During these difficult times, investors tried to preserve their assets by investing in precious metals, most notably gold and silver.

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